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Setialaksana, Wirawan -
Universitas Negeri Makassar
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Journal : Media Statistika

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FORECASTING COVID-19 IN INDONESIA WITH VARIOUS TIME SERIES MODELS Gumgum Darmawan; Dedi Rosadi; Budi Nurani Ruchjana; Resa Septiani Pontoh; Asrirawan Asrirawan; Wirawan Setialaksana
MEDIA STATISTIKA Vol 15, No 1 (2022): Media Statistika
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/medstat.15.1.83-93

Abstract

In this study, Covid-19 modeling in Indonesia is carried out using a time series model. The time series model used is the time series model for discrete data. These models consist of Feedforward Neural Network (FFNN), Error, Trend, and Seasonal (ETS), Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), Fuzzy Time Series (FTS), Generalized Autoregression Moving Average (GARMA), and Bayesian Time Series. Based on the results of forecast accuracy calculation using MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) as model evaluation for confirmed data, the most accurate case models is the bayesian model of 0.04%, while all recovered cases yield MAPE 0.05%, except for FTS = 0.06%. For data for death cases SSA and Bayesian Models, the best with MAPE is 0.07%.
Co-Authors Abdal, Nurul Mukhlisa Abdal, Nurul Mukhlisah Abdul Wahid Abdul Wahid Abeng, Andi Tenri Ady Rukma Ah Yusuf, Ah Ahmad, Haslinah Akmal Hidayat Akmal Hidayat Alamsyah - Alimuddin Sa'ban Miru Ambo Dalle Aminuddin Amiruddin Amiruddin Amiruddin Amiruddin Amiruddin Andi Aras Andi Muhammad Irfan Andi Muhammad Taufik Ali Andi Yunarni yun Yunarni, Andi Yunarni yun Andika Isma Andriani Andriani Anwar, Andi Ratu Ayu Ashari Anwar, Andi Ratu ayuashari Aras, Andi Ashadi, Nini Rahayu Ashadi, Ninik Rahayu Ashari, Hilda Asmar AR Asrirawan B. , Muhammad Fajar Baso, Fadhlirrahman Basrah, Miftahul Jannah Budi Nurani Ruchjana Buhaerah Buhaerah Buhaerah Buhaerah, Buhaerah Burhamzah, Muftihaturrahmah Busrah, Zulfiqar Chairunnisa Ar. Lamasitudju Damayanti, Lusy Daud Mahande, Ridwan Dedi Rosadi Della Fadhilatunisa Dewi Fatmarani Surianto Dewi, Shabrina Syntha Dian Sidik Arsyad Dinda Hummayra Dinda Hummayra Fadhillah Afifah Fadhlirrahman Baso Fathahillah Fathahillah Fawziah Zahrawati B Firdaus Firdaus Fiskia Rera Baharuddin Gumgum Darmawan Harifuddin Haripuddin . Hasim, Muhammad Hermawan, Nanang Hidayat M, Wahyu Irwansyah Suwahyu Irwansyah Suwahyu Israwati Hamsar Iwan Suhardi J. Hadi, Anto Jamaluddin Jamaluddin Jamaluddin Jasruddin Daud Malago Johar Amir Jumadin Jumaisa Jumaisa Jumaisa, Jumaisa Kurnia Prima Putra Kusrini S. Kadar Lucy Widasari M. Miftach Fakhri Mahmud, Amiruddin Mansyur Mansyur Marhayati Masikki Muh. Asriadi Muhammad Asriadi Muhammad Azwar Muhammad Fajar B Muhammad Haristo Rahman Muhammad hasim Muhammad Hasim Muhammad Husnul Khuluq Mukhlisah Abdal, Nurul Nini Rahayu Ashadi Ninik Rahayu Ashadi Nur Aini Anis Nuraisah, Nuraisah Nurlaela Nurlaela Nurlaela Nurlaila Fitriani Nurul Mukhlisa Abdal Nurul Mukhlisa Abdal Nurul Mukhlisah Abdal Pramono, Ashar Prima Putra, Kurnia Putra, Reski Praja Ramli Rasyid, Ramli Rasjid, Ramli Resa Septiani Pontoh Ridwan Daud Mahande Rizki Herdiani Rosidah Rully Charitas Indra Prahmana Rusli Ismail Sanatang Sarih, Karmila Shabrina Syntha Dewi Shabrina Syntha Dewi SN, Ulfaizah Sulaiman, Dwi Reski Anandari Sulaiman, Dwi Rezky Anandari Supardi, Rafsanjani Sutrisni, Elly Syam, Sriwidayani Syawaluddin, Ahmad Umar, Nur Fadhilah Wahid, Abdi WAHYUDI Widiastuty, Lilis Yususf, Andi Zulfikar Zahrawati B, Fawziah Zulfiqar Busrah