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Journal : Jurnal Natural

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A station-scale modeling framework for heavy rainfall classification in tropical weather using representative machine learning approaches MULSANDI, ADI; MIFTAHUDDIN, MIFTAHUDDIN
Jurnal Natural Volume 25 Number 3, October 2025
Publisher : Universitas Syiah Kuala

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24815/jn.v25i3.48605

Abstract

Extreme daily rainfall in rapidly urbanizing tropical cities frequently overwhelms drainage and disrupts critical services, yet station-scale forecasting remains limited by convective variability and sparse observations. This motivates lightweight, interpretable machine-learning tools that operate on routine station data. We propose and evaluate a station-scale framework to classify heavy-rainfall days (50 mm) in a humid tropical setting. Using 1,796 daily observations from the Soekarno-Hatta Meteorological Station (20182022), we engineered lag-informed predictors (e.g., previous-day rainfall, 3-day sums/means) and compared three representative classifiers, Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Random Forest (RF). Class imbalance was addressed with class-weighted training, and models were assessed on a held-out test set using precision, recall, F1, and Receiver Operating Characteristic Area Under the Curve (ROC-AUC). LR achieved the highest recall (0.429), indicating moderate sensitivity to rare heavy-rainfall events, whereas RF yielded the best probabilistic discrimination (AUC = 0.619) but failed to flag positives at the default threshold; SVM displayed near-random behavior. Feature analyses highlighted humidity, temperature, and recent rainfall accumulation as the most influential predictors, consistent with tropical convective processes. Despite severe class imbalance, simple, station-based classifiers can extract actionable signals for rare-event screening in data-limited tropical regions. Operational value is likely to improve through probability calibration and threshold tuning, ensemble integration, and spatial generalization to multi-station settings.
Co-Authors A Zaenurrosyid A.A. Ketut Agung Cahyawan W Ade Davy Wiranata Adi Mulsandi Adiputra, Adiputra Af'idah, Af'idah Afrilianti, Anggi Ahmad Ahmad Aman Aman Amik Nadziroh Andana, Muhammad Lingga Andika Triansyah Anggraini, Tiara Citra Annisa, Laura Aqriansyah, M. Yani Arfaton, Arfaton ari, ari susetiyo Ariyansyah, Riyan Azhary, Dany Azizatul Inayah Azni Azni, Azni Azwana Azwana Baihaqi, Moh. Hamdan Bakri, Muammar Binari, Susilawati Bunari, Bunari Chusnul Chotimah Damayanti, Silviyana Danar Widiyanta Darmawati Darmawati Davy Wiranata, Ade Dheny Wiratmoko Dianis Izzatul Yuanita dianis, dianis izzatul yuanita Dilla, Putri Paras Dwi Yuliantri, Rhoma Dyah Kumalasari Eddy Gunawan, Eddy Effendi, Muchammad Irfan Ernawati, Atis Ika Fadhil, Rahmat Fadli, Muhammad Rijal Faizaturohmah, Siti Nida Fajar Indriyani Fauzi, Moh Ali Febriana_Hediyanti, Luthfia Fikri, Asyrul Fitriyah Fitriyah Fitriyah, Minantika Gunadi, Reza Gunartati, Gunartati Habibis Saleh Hafifatunnur, Hafifatunnur Hafis, Muhammad Hajairin Hakim, Nur Halim, Hendra Hariyadi, Hariyadi HARMANTO, ADI Herdin, Yulia Hi. Abdul Qayum, Abdul Rahman Hidayatus Sholihah Huda, Muhammad Chairul Ichsan Setiawan Ida Ayu Oka Suwati Sideman Ika Ernawati, Atis Indo Santalia Iqdami, Muhammad Nazil Irfan Hania Irfan, Puguh Jalaluddin Jalaluddin Jannah, Syarifah Raihannatul Jauhar Fajrin, Jauhar Jayanti, Ummi Nur Afinni Dwi Juwita Juwita, Juwita Kartini, Vidya Putri Kusbianto, Kusbianto Kusumaningsih, Reni La Ode Ismail Ahmad, La Ode Ismail Laili KS, Isnaniah Lutfia, Iklima M. Fahli Zatrahadi M. Ihsan Ma'mun, Sukron Maghfuri, Safiul Maisaroh Maisaroh Makmun, Akhmad Haqiqi Maulana, Fahmi Maulana, Teuku Moch Mukhlison Mudjahirin Thohir Muhammad Afif Muhammad Awaluddin, Muhammad Muhammad Haris Riyaldi, Muhammad Haris Muhammad Nashihin Muhsin, Ilyya Murkhana, Murkhana Musli musli Nandisa, Adelin Nawawi Nawawi Ngudiyono Ni Nyoman Kencanawati Niqie, Mohammad Syah Rizal Nirra Fatmah nirra, nirra fatmah novindra . Nunik Pratiwi Nur Azizah Nurhayati, Putri Nurjanah, Anisa Siti Nurul amin, Nurul Oktari, Rina Suryani Pinardi, Sofia Pratiwi, Nunik Puji Wulandari Kuncorowati Putri, Retno Wahyuni Rafsanjani, Adnan Rahayu, Leni Sri Rahmad Rahmad Ramadhan, Afinda Ramadhan, M. Jasuli Ramlah Ramlah Ramza, Harry Ratih Setyaningrum Rivan, M. Rizkya Alfahrezy, Rafly Rosalina Rosalina S Puyu, Darsul Sa'adi, Sa'adi Salam, Afdus Saputra, Aldi Saputro, Pradata Ardi Sa’adi, Sa’adi Sinduningrum, Estu Sitompul, Ariman Sofia, Sofia - Soriente, Antonia Sri Susanti Suhaimi Suhaimi Sulistyorini Sulistyorini, Sulistyorini Sumirah Sumirah Suratmin, Hariangga Aqil Wiryandika Suroyo Suroyo Syafiq, Amirul Syahputra, Ahmad Benny Syahputra, Rizaldy Syarif Arkiang, Bachder Taufiqur Rohman Ulfazah, Yernati Wahdaniyah, Nia Wahyudi Wahyudi Wanda Ndapa, Damianus Widodo, Muh. Adnan Widodo, Muhammad Adnan Wijaya, Roma Wulandari Wulandari Yeni Rahayu Yuliantri, Rhoma Dwi Yuliantri, Rhoma Dwi Aria Yurnalis Yurnalis Yuspiah, Eka Fitriani Yusriyadi Yusriyadi Zakaria, Nurhijrah Binti Zakariah, Asril Amirul Zuhry, Salman