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The Impact of Government Expenditures, Gross Fixed Capital Formation, and Exports on Indonesia’s Gross Domestic Product Rahel Veronika Siregar; Armin Rahmansyah Nasution
Jurnal Warta Dharmawangsa Vol 20, No 2 (2026)
Publisher : Universitas Dharmawangsa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.46576/wdw.v20i2.8557

Abstract

This study analyzes the short-term and long-term relationship between government spending, gross fixed capital formation (PMTB), and exports to Indonesia's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the period 2000-2024 using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) model. The results of the study show that in the long term, government expenditure has a positive and significant effect on GDP, PMTB has a negative and significant effect, while exports do not have a significant effect. In the short term, the three independent variables have not been shown to have a significant effect on GDP. The results of the Impulse Response Function (IRF) show that the GDP response to shocks of the three variables fluctuates greatly in the initial period (1-19), then towards a stable near zero, indicating that the impact of the shock is temporary. Forecast Error Variance Decomposition (FEVD) analysis revealed that until the 100th period, the contribution of government expenditure to GDP variance was 5.56%, PMTB was 2.00%, and exports was 0.85%, while 91.58% was explained by the GDP variable itself. The study concludes that government spending is effective in driving long-term economic growth, but physical investment still faces structural challenges, and exports have a limited role in the domestic economy.
Co-Authors Agnes Monica Sianipar Aini, Lathifah Aisyah Fadhillah Lubis Aisyah Fadhillah Lubis Aisyah, Shabilla Akmalia, Uswatul Albi Sutandi Ali Asdon Tanjung Ali Asdon Tanjung Ali Fikri Hasibuan Alisya, Jeane Ananda, Bunga Angelia, Tina Anggriani, Dwi Angkat, Febryanti ANNISA HANDAYANI Anzani, Wandira Ardiansyah, Fikri Aulia Putri Ramadhani Batu Bara, Radja Marihat Br Ginting, Hilkia Natasya Br Sinaga, Era Widia Br. Ginting, Hilkia Natasya Dachi, Indriana Dafa Ariza Dafa Ariza Damara, M. Deni Damara, Muhammad Deni Dedeng Irawan Elisa Clara Saragih Eliza Handayani Lubis Enjel Widia Sari Gea Evi Syuriani Harahap Fadhil Irfansyah Fadhil Irfansyah Fadiya, Feny Fayza, Salsabila Febri Br Hutabarat Febrianti, Gita Feby, Yohana Felecia Feny Fadiya Feryanto Nababan Feryanto Nababan Fidia Wati Fikri Hasibuan, Ali Fitrah Maya Sari Hasugian Fransiskus, Yogi Gary Ganda Tua Sibarani, Choms Ginting, Era Mustika Ginting, Hilkia Natasya Br. Gultom, Rona Hinirim Handani, Tia Hasibuan, Alawi Parlindungan Hasibuan, Andriansyah Hasugian, Fitrah Maya Sari Hidayat, Nasrullah Agus Hilkia Natasya Br. Ginting Hottarida br Sinaga Hutabalian, Relli Anisma Hutabarat, Febry Br Icha Riska Gloria Nainggolan Indriana Dachi Indriani, Selvi Irsyad, Ferozi Ramdana Jelita Simanungkalit Jonathan Brando Saragi Juanda Maulana Juniarta Br Sinaga Kaiesa Raihatul Muntaza Kautsar Fatin Dharmawan Nasution Lilis Febiola Lora Theresia Panggabean Lubis, Eliza Handayani Lubis, Karina Safitri Luhutan, Daniel Sanggam Lumbansiantar, Krisna Sarinauli M Raihan Noer Malau, Chelsya Olyza Manik, Citra Wulandari Manik, Marke Muji Manurung, Aprina Septauli Manurung, Mahlina Putri Manurung, Melisa Patrisia Manurung4, Mahlina Putri Marbun, Jonatan Margaretha Sembiring Maulana, Juanda Maya Wulandari Mentari Syahputri Purba Mery Kristiani Muammar Rinaldi Muhammad Abdi, Muhammad Muhammad Aldi Akbar Muhammad Alhasymi Matondang Muhammad Bukhori Dalimunthe Muhammad Deni Damara Mujasmara, Fildzah Darayani Muntaza, Kaiesa Raihatul Mutia Annisa Nababan, Vito Rogantina Nafisha, Nadya Naibaho, Angelina Rolas Olivia Nainggolan, Icha Riska Gloria Nainggolan, Noubel Putra Nakita Nasrullah Hidayat Nasrullah Hidayat, Nasrullah Nasution, Kautsar Fatin Dharmawan NASUTION, PUTRI ANDINI Natalia Natalia Nazira Maulidia Nasution Noer, Muhammad Raihan Novita Hotma Uli Sitanggang Novita, Hannisa Nurul Azmi Nurul Azmi, Nurul Octaviani, Windi Ogin Syaputra Sinaga Panggabean, Lora Theresia Panjaitan, Tulus Pasaribu, Alya Sabrina Pasaribu, Julio Rikky Supriadi Pratiwi, Audina Putri, Devi Adinda Putri, Dwi Nabilla Rafael Benediktus Rafael Benediktus Rahel Veronika Siregar Ranti Delima Tobing Raymond Panturi Siboro Raymond Panuturi Siboro Respa Mellia Sirait Rina Rina Rina Rinaldi Rinaldi Rinaldi Rinaldi Runi , Naila Ananda Runi, Naila Ananda Rut Afentina Sinambela Saajidah, Annisah Salma Diani Salsabila, Salsabila Salsabila, Sasabila Salsabilah, Alifah Sam Deva Nasra Sinulingga Saragih, Elisa Clara Saragih, Ian Josephan Sarah Bakara Sarah, Mei Sari, Arsiska Sari, Yolanda Novita Sembiring, Cornelia Aginta Br Sembiring, Margaretha Sembiring, Nathania Christy Septian, Yan Siahaan, Tegar Efraim Gilbert Sianturi, Yanti Masryana Sibarani, Anggun Sihombing, Runggu Sihombing, Theresia Silaban, Krisnawati Silalahi, Nadia Enjel Lina Simandalahi, Eliata Sinaga, Era Widia Br Sinaga, Primawati Sinambela, Rut Afentina Sinurat, Nurlia Aprianti Sipahutar, Jelita Novianna Sirait, Joan Agus Sirait, Melani Manginar Siregar, Fahmi Apriansyah Siregar, Filja Azkiah Siregar, Rahel Veronika Sitanggang, Devi Margaretta Sitanggang, Enzelina Sitanggang, Novita Hotma Uli Siti Naila Rahmi Sitohang, Cindy Eleonora Sitohang, Gresia Septina Situmorang, Frandika Situmorang, Rachel Meylani Syahbana, Eza Syahrani, Desi Tampubolon, Maya Sentia Anjelika Tegar Efrahim Gilbert Tia Handani Tia Handani Tina Angelia Tri Rahayu Turnip, Christina Hotmatondini Ulfah, Aqilah Alifiyah Uswatul Akmalia Vega, Nadia Yan Septian Yani, Rindy Endry Yogi Fransiskus Yosua Simanjuntak Yosua Simanjuntak Zai, Brigita Zaki Edi Saputra