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NURUL HIDAYAT
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Journal : Master Manajemen

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Analisis Peramalan Volume Penjualan CV Tirta Anugerah Abadi Menggunakan Metode Exponential Smoothing with Trend pada POM-QM Nurul Hidayat; Muhammad Rully Febrian; Silvana Yusuf
Master Manajemen Vol. 3 No. 2 (2025): Master Manajemen
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi & Bisnis, Universitas Nusa Nipa

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.59603/masman.v3i2.823

Abstract

The increasing competition in the bottled drinking water distribution business in Tarakan City compels companies to improve sales forecasting accuracy as a basis for strategic decision-making. This study aims to analyze the effectiveness of the Exponential Smoothing with Trend method implemented through the POM-QM software in predicting the sales volume of CV Tirta Anugerah Abadi. Monthly sales data over the past two years were quantitatively analyzed using the Exponential Smoothing model with various smoothing parameter combinations. The results indicate that the parameter combination of α = 0.7 and β = 0.1 yields the lowest forecasting error, with a MAPE value of 1.24%. These findings demonstrate that the applied method is highly accurate and reliable for sales forecasting, thus supporting the company in more efficient stock, production, and distribution planning. The implications of this research not only enrich the literature on the application of modern forecasting methods in the local distribution sector but also provide practical contributions to company management in data-driven decision-making.
Co-Authors Abdur Rahim Abi Dermawan Adrian Maulana Agus Arianti Agus Raharjo Ahmad Asrof Fitri Ahmad Juliana Ahmad Taufik Ahmad Zabidi Ahmad Zainal Abidin Ahmatang Ahmatang Aji Muhammad Ezrinal Aziz Alifah Syaputri Alvida Mustika Rukmi Alvida Mustikarukmi Alvina Alvina Amanda Kamila Savitri Amilia Ananda Rizqi azharry Rohmadan Ananova Anjani Andi Syazwanie Andrik Radika Saptaputra Anggun Sarwana Anisah Nurfahmi Anjariana Makmum Rokim Any Sani’atin Ardyansyah Arini Hidayah Arnadi Arnadi Arya Nadani Asrul Asrul Atmojo Prayogo Widodo Audi Audi Aulia Fasih Aykel Farel Ayu Juliana Bambang Maryoto Benedictus Kusmanto BERO USADA Beti Yanuri Posha Budi Hasyim Bunga Bunga C.W. Lee Charla Ta’bi Sulung Choirul Umam Cici Agustina Bp Cikha Aryan Cintana, Ayu Darnawi Darnawi Deni Irawan Destri Emiliana Dina Natasa Salsabilah Dindy Darmawati Putri Dinna Juwita Anggrain Dinna Juwita Anggraini Dinta Nur Azmiah Diva Novianti Dori Rachmawani Dwi Novitasari Dwi Rahmawati Edi Awan Efan Nurhidayat Eka Wulandari Eko Ngabdul Shodikin Elvi Mayli Erlivia Ramadhaniyanti Ernu Widodo Ersa Putra, Aby Aditya Eva Riana Evi Septiana Fahmi Arief Rahman Fais Maftuch Febri Saputra Febrianingsih. A FERY WONGSO Fharel Rezza Lesmana Firdasari Indamala Fitri Dwi Ningtyas Fitri Nur Ilham Gatra Aditya Putra Gea Dilah Hermila Geo Feneri Gilang Ramadhan Gloria Tabita Temban Gloritio Xander Gusti Ayu Dwi Jessika Dewanti Gustini Berianti Hadisa Putri Haikal Nur Musyafak Hendro Suyanto Herlina Herlina Hertin Khalifatun Nisa Arifah Herwin Herwin Hilda Hilda Ilham Ilham Iluh Ika Melan Sri Imam Mukhlash Indah Rohana Setyaningsih Indah Sari Indra Laksamana Putra Intan Feiduri Inu L. Wibowo Irfan Selutan Isfarudi Jannatul Firdaus Januari Darung Jasmin Putra Pratama Jayawarsa, A.A. Ketut Jesika Dela Maharani Jihan Amelia Putri Juliana Rosita Jumadi Jumadi Jumaiti Jumaiti Jumi Maria Junaidi Junaidi Kartini Kartini karunia, Erick Karya Agung Katharina Sandra Lisya Khairunnisa Khairunnisa Kristina Sari Kusmantoro Edy Sularso Lailatul M. Chaira Lia Bayu Natasa Lianti Lianti Lilik Kartika Sari Lilis Lilis Liska Pasorong Lola Tersya Fitriani Lusi Pasorong Lusiana Safitri M. Faldi Kurniawan Madyan Syahruramadana Manja Manja Marcelina Bidang Marcella Risa Maria Deslianti Suryani Katim Marleni Marleni Marsanda Martina Murlani Maryan Maryan Maya Anggren Maya Maya Maya Nur Melisah Mengsi Mengsi Merisa, Merisa Merlin , Merlin Miko Aji Saputra Minarti Minarti Misbach Munir Moh. Amin Mohammad Isa Irawan Mohammad Syafii Monika Martiyoli Urei Mufdhillatul Lailiyah Muh. Irfandy Azis Muhamad Akil Saputra Muhammad Aidil Muhammad Aldo Muhammad Aprisal Muhammad Chaidir Muhammad Fauzan Firdaus Muhammad Inti Muhammad Nurhuda Muhammad Ridho Muhammad Rizaldi Muhammad Rully Febrian Muhammad Syahril Nabila Afdaliyah Najiatun Nanda Saputra Natalia Natalia Nelson Jafridin Nia Ramadani Nirwana Nirwana Nisa’ul Alamin Nomeritae Noni Haironi Nor Asyirah Nunihartini, Yekti Nuprianti Nuprianti Nur Alisah Nur Diana Khalida Nur Indah Sari Nur Jannah Nur Rahmi Nur Ramadhan, Rudi Nur Syarifah Athira Nurdin Cahyo Setiawan Nurhasanah Nurhasanah Nurmaliatik Nurmaliatik Nurwito Nurwito Nurzalsabila Nurzalsabila Owen Petit PAISAL PAISAL Prithi Arvana Angody putra, komang septia krisna Putri Adinda Putri Nabila Marsha Putri Rahmadani Putri Salsabila Zahra. M putrijuwita Qalsum Nur J Qoningatun Nashikhah Rabi Simon Rahmat Hidayat Rahmat Zulkarnain Ranianty Ruru Ranti Febriyani Ratna Satriani Regita Aqsa Rizki Cahyani Rehan Aldi Saputro Reni Handayani Reski Yusuf Ribiyansari, Ribiyansari Ridwan Ridwan Rifqi Muhammad Rindiani Rio Rio Ripka Ingan Risna Indah Muliana Rizgina Fauzia Rosiana Rozi Djoko Arfiono Sabari Sabari Saberina Hasibuan Sabila Septiana Sapriadi Sapriadi Satri Lapu’ Satrio Hadi Wijoyo Shalahuddin Shalsa Khayrtaul Azisah Shine Pintor Siolemba Patiro Silvana Yusuf Sindy Arismawati Hasan Siska Sonya Nanda Dewi Sisna Fiani Siti Jubaidah Siti Nadiah Sitti Sabiyya Sodikin Sodikin Sofia Yulia Bulu Sri Astutik Sri Rohani Sri Widata Subekti Subekti Suci Wulandari Suhendra Syafran Sukmawati Sukmawati Sukmawati, Sri Kandi Sulaiman Sulaiman Sunaryo Sunaryo suryaningsih Susan Nur Fadilla Syafriadiman, Syafriadiman Syahran Syarima Z Tasya Tasya Tyas Restiana Tyas Retno Wulan Ummi Chulsum Vega Candra Dinata Wenie Octavianty Dayang Widiyanto, Hendy Widya Fatma Widya Nur Fita Sari Windi Siong Yashar Arifandya Ramadhan Yekti Maryani Yenni Sukmawati Yeremia Anjasmara Riyanto Yilka Jeni Bidang Yoel Anis Yuda Wicaksana Yulia Viani Nogo Tukan Yulita Lidan Yuniati Yuniati Yustinus Jemy Yusuf Subagyo Zakina Zunita Lut Fiana Pangesti Zurnita