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Sunarmi Sunarmi
Semarang State University
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Journal : Unnes Journal of Mathematics

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METODE LEAST TRIMMED SQUARE (LTS) DAN MM-ESTIMATION UNTUK MENGESTIMASI PARAMETER REGRESI KETIKA TERDAPAT OUTLIER Dewi, Elok Tri Kusuma; Agoestanto, Arief; Sunarmi, Sunarmi
Unnes Journal of Mathematics Vol 5 No 1 (2016)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/ujm.v5i1.13104

Abstract

This article discusses the theoretical study and use excel and SPSS 19 application of Least Trimmed Square (LTS) methods and MM-estimation methods. Theoretical study focused on the elaboration of the concept of outlier, least trimmed square methods and MM-estimation methods and selection best model use the criteria R2 and resid value. Outlier is data on who did not attend a pattern common regression on the model produced, or not follow as a pattern data as a whole. The existence of outlier in the data can be disrupt the process of data analysis, that led to the data on residual and variance become larger. This research aims to know the effectiveness of robust regression method with Least Trimmed Square (LTS) and MM-estimation in multiple linear regression. This data consisting of age (X1) and body mass index (X2) as variable independent while systolik blood pressure (Y) as dependent variables. The model produced using Least Trimmed Square methods that is Y^=67.141+0.649X1+0.587X2. Regarding the resulting uses the method MM-estimation that is Y^=65.308+0.666X1+0.618X2. Because at Least Trimmed Square method (LTS) obtained the R2 value of is bigger and smaller than the residual method of MM-estimation then it can be concluded that the method of Least Square Trimmed (LTS) is more efficient in the estimate parameter of the regression compared the methods of MMestimation
KETEPATAN KLASIFIKASI DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE MULTIVARIATE ADAPTIVE REGRESSION SPLINE (MARS) PADA DATA KELOMPOK RUMAH TANGGA KABUPATEN CILACAP Anam, Saroful; Sugiman, Sugiman; Sunarmi, Sunarmi
Unnes Journal of Mathematics Vol 6 No 1 (2017)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/ujm.v6i1.13638

Abstract

Groups of households based on per capita expenditure is composed of two groups of poor households and non-poor households, to separate individuals or objects into a group so it can be located ata particular group can use the method of classification. The purpose of this study was to determine the classification results and errors in the results classification of households in Cilacap district based on the factors affecting the level of poverty in Cilacap with methods Multivariate Adaptive Regression Spline (MARS). MARS is a nonparametric regression method that can be used for high-dimensional data is. To get the best MARS models, do a combination of value Basis Function (BF), Maximum Interaction (MI), and the Minimum Observation (MO) by trial and error. The best model is the model that is used in combination with BF = 45, MI = 3, MO = 1 because it has the smallest value that is equal to 0,030 GCV. Based on the variables that affect groups of households in Cilacap, the result of classification of 37 households with poor category, 34 households appropriately classified as poor, while one 3 households are classified as poor. Likewise, of the 113 households with non-poor category, 113 households appropriately classified into the category of not poor, and no household misclassified into the household with non-poor category. Retrieved classification accuracy of 98.00% of the value of Apparent Error Rate (APER) at 2.00% and the Press's Q test showed that statistically MARS method has been consistent in classifying the data. So as to further research on the classification suggested using the method MARS, by looking at the value of the smallest GCV and GCV value if they have the same smallest it can be seen with the smallest MSE value judgment.
PERBANDINGAN HASIL OPTIMASI PADA METODE BROWN’S ONE-PARAMETER DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING MENGGUNAKAN ALGORITMA NON-LINEAR PROGRAMMING BERBANTUAN MATLAB Novalia, Dyah; Sugiman, Sugiman; Sunarmi, Sunarmi
Unnes Journal of Mathematics Vol 7 No 1 (2018)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/ujm.v7i1.20381

Abstract

Pemulusan eksponensial ganda satu parameter dari Brown merupakan salah satu pemulusan eksponensial dengan satu parameter, yaitu parameter . Beberapa algoritma nonlinear programming dapat digunakan untuk menyelesaikan masalah optimasi. Tujuan dari penulisan skripsi ini adalah mendapatkan nilai parameter optimal pada pemulusan eksponensial ganda satu parameter dari Brown menggunakan algoritma golden section, algoritma pencarian dikotomis dan algoritma kuadratis dengan bantuan software Matlab R2009a. Hasil perhitungan dari ketiga algoritma tersebut dibandingkan, lalu dilakukan peramalan menggunakan pemulusan eksponensial ganda satu parameter dari Brown. Pada penelitian ini, proses untuk mendapatkan parameter optimal dengan menggunakan algoritma golden section membutuhkan 16 iterasi hingga didapatkan nilai optimal sebesar dan MAPE sebesar 0,10719%. Algoritma pencarian dikotomis membutuhkan 13 iterasi hingga didapatkan nilai optimal sebesar dan MAPE sebesar 0,10720%. Sedangkan algoritma kuadratis membutuhkan 3 iterasi hingga didapatkan nilai optimal sebesar 0,206883 dan MAPE sebesar 0,10720%. Berdasarkan hasil perhitungan tersebut maka algoritma kuadratis lebih efektif karena jumlah iterasi yang dibutuhkan lebih sedikit sehingga waktu yang dibutuhkan juga lebih efisien
PARAMETER ESTIMATION OF SPATIAL REGRESSION MODEL WITH GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED POISSON REGRESSION METHOD Fadlilah, Itsnaini Munjiyatul; Sugiman, Sugiman; Sunarmi, Sunarmi
Unnes Journal of Mathematics Vol 8 No 2 (2019)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/ujm.v8i2.23796

Abstract

Poisson Regression is one of the non-linear regression analysis whose Poisson distributed response variable.Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression (GWPR) is one of the statistical methods to analyze spatial data with point approach. The purpose of this research is to form GWPR model with fixed bisquare and adaptive bisquare kernel function, and compare best model of GWPR with kernel fixed bisquare and adaptive bisquare function. The data of this research is the percentage of poor people in Central Java Province. In this study there are seven (7) variables related to the percentage factor of the poverty population. The test obtained 2 significant variables are population life expectancy and income per-capita population has been adjusted .Based on the result of research, it is found that GWPR model is more suitable than Poisson regression. Provided Geographically Weighted Poisson Regression model with fixed bisquare fixed function and adaptive bisquare globally in Province of Central Java . The advantage of the model can be seen from the value of AIC. The AIC value obtained in the fixed bisquare kernel is 178,7446. Whereas, The AIC value obtained in adaptive kernel bisquare is 183.2349. The GWPR model with the fixed Bisquare kernel is better than GWPR adaptive bisquare.
OPTIMIZATION OF SERIES QUEUE SYSTEM AT SAMSAT (ONE ROOF SYSTEM) SERVICE FACILITY BASED ON ASPIRATION LEVEL Astuti, Niken Yulia; Dwidayati, Nur Karomah; Sunarmi, Sunarmi
Unnes Journal of Mathematics Vol 7 No 2 (2018)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/ujm.v7i2.24402

Abstract

Antrian dapat ditemui pada beberapa fasilitas pelayanan umum misalnya di Kantor Sistem Administrasi Manunggal Satu Atap (SAMSAT). Tujuan dari penelitian ini untuk mengetahui model sistem antrian yang saat ini diterapkan di Kantor SAMSAT Kota Tegal untuk mengetahui ukuran keefektifan proses pelayanan wajib pajak, dan memberikan sistem antrian yang optimal berdasarkan tingkat aspirasi. Dari hasil penelitian diperoleh bahwa pada SAMSAT Kota Tegal mengikuti model sistem antrian Single Channel Multiple Phase (antrian tandem atau seri). Rincian model antrian pada loket pendaftaran, pembayaran, dan penyerahan STNK adalah [G/G/1]:[GD/∞/∞]. Ini berarti sistem antrian mengikuti pola kedatangan yang berdistribusi General sedangkan waktu pelayanan berdistribusi General dengan jumlah pelayan meliputi 1 petugas di tiap loketnya. Hasil efektivitas dari sistem antrian di Loket SAMSAT Kota Tegal adalah hari Senin, 19 Maret 2018 dengan Lq = 5,0993, Ls = 5,7451, Wq = 12,6078, Ws = 14,2045, dan W = 35,42%. %. Pada hari Selasa, 20 Maret 2018 dengan Lq = 4,3054, Ls = 4,8791, Wq = 12,4754, Ws = 14,1375, dan W = 42,64%. Pada hari Rabu, 21 Maret 2018 dengan Lq = 4,1846, Ls = 4,7469, Wq = 12,4156, Ws = 14,0839, dan W = 43,77%. Pada hari Kamis, 22 Maret 2018 dengan Lq = 4,3002, Ls = 4,8947, Wq = 11,6106, Ws = 13,2158, dan W = 40,55%. Waktu menunggu yang diinginkan pengunjung dan pihak SAMSAT tidak lebih dari 20 menit dan waktu menganggur petugas yang diperbolehkan oleh SAMSAT Kota Tegal adalah 20% maka banyaknya petugas ideal pada tiap loketnya yaitu 1 orang petugas. Abstract Queues can be found in some public service facilities such as in SAMSAT Office (One Roof System). The purpose of this research is to know the model of queuing system currently applied in SAMSAT of Tegal City to know the effectiveness of taxpayer service process, and provide an optimal queue system based on the level of aspiration. The result showed that the SAMSAT of Tegal city follow the model of a queuing system Single Channel Multiple Phase (queue tandem or series). The details of the queuing model at registration counters, payments, and checkers of STNK delivery are [G/G/1]:[GD/∞/∞]. This means the queuing system follows the General distributed arrival pattern while the General Distributed service time with the number of waiters includes 1 officer at each counter. The effectiveness of queuing system in SAMSAT of Tegal City is on Sunday, 19 March 2018 with Lq = 5,0993, Ls = 5,7451, Wq = 12,6078, Ws = 14,2045, dan W = 35,42%. On Tuesday, 20 March 2018 with Lq = 4,3054, Ls = 4,8791, Wq = 12,4754, Ws = 14,1375, dan W = 42,64%. On Wednesday, 21 March 2018 with Lq = 4,1846, Ls = 4,7469, Wq = 12,4156, Ws = 14,0839, dan W = 43,77%. And Thursday, 22 March 2018 with Lq = 4,3002, Ls = 4,8947, Wq = 11,6106, Ws = 13,2158, dan W = 40,55% Waiting time desired visitors and parties SAMSAT no more than 20 minutes and idle time officers allowed by SAMSAT of Tegal City is 20% then the number of ideal officers at each counter that is 1 officer.
Optimalisasi Sistem Antrian pada Loket Farmasi dengan Model Tingkat Aspirasi (Study Kasus RSK. Ngesti Waluyo Temanggung) Anggraeni, Anita; Dwidayati, Nur Karomah; Sunarmi, Sunarmi
Unnes Journal of Mathematics Vol 8 No 2 (2019)
Publisher : Universitas Negeri Semarang

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.15294/ujm.v8i2.26726

Abstract

Antrian banyak terjadi karena banyak orang yang membutuhkan pelayanan atau jasa dalam waktu yang bersamaan. Sebagai contoh adalah antrian pada rumah sakit terutama pada fasilitas rawat jalan. Tujuan dari penelitian ini untuk mendiskripsikan model antrian, mendiskripsikan hasil perhitungan ukuran keefektifan dengan dibantu software visual basic 6.0 dan mendiskripsikan model antrian yang optimal dengan model tingkat aspirasi. Metode penelitian yang digunakan studi pustaka,metode pengumpulan data, metode analisis data, dan penarikan simpulan. Pengumpulan data dilakukan dengan metode observasi dan metode wawancara. Dari hasil analisis pada sistem antrian di loket farmasi RSK Ngesti Waluyo Temanggung diperoleh model antrian (M/G/1) : (GD/ ), untuk ukuran keefektifan pada hari Senin, Rabu dan Kamis sistem antrian cukup lenggang dan cukup efektif dilihat dari persentase menganggur dan untuk hari Selasa sistem antrian cukup padat terlihat dari Lq > 5 orang dan Ws > 10 menit, maka perlu adanya optimalisasi dengan peneliti mensimulasikan menambah satu petugas, maka diperoleh Lq < 5 orang dan Ws < 10 menit. Jadi jumlah petugas di loket farmasi untuk hari Senin, Rabu dan Kamis sudah ideal dan untuk hari Selasa disarankan ditambah satu petugas
Co-Authors Abdul Aziz Alsa, Abdul Aziz Adi Isworo, Adi Aflah, Aflah Afrita Harlianty, Rully Agusmidah Agusmidah Agustina, Fitria Fertha Ahmad Zakiy Ramadhan Alfian, Miftah Hafidz Alvi Syahrin Anak Agung Istri Sri Wiadnyani Anam, Saroful Angga Kusuma Dawami Anita Anggraeni, Anita Antary, Cut Rizki Anton Bahtiar Antonius, Hendri Arief Agoestanto Asri Budiarto Astuti, Niken Yulia Atmaja, Agus Adi Aulia, Faturrahman Ayu Wulandari Damanik, Wiwin Aziz, Muhammad Fauzan Baidlowi, M. Hisyam Bambang Sarwono Bambang Sunarto BISMAR NASUTION Bravendi, Diantina Budi Setiyono BUDIMAN GINTING Chairuna, Tengku Mita Ciptawan, Ciptawan Dahrul, Annida Darmojo, Kuntadi Wasi David Mubarok, David Dedi Harianto Delina, Susanti Deny Setiawan Devi A, T. Keizerina Devi A, T.Keizerina Devian, Risnanda Vinca Dewi, Elok Tri Kusuma Dewi, Nuriana Rachmani Dian, Elsy Didit Widiatmoko Diyastanti, Arum Donmes, Tamado Dwijanto Dwijanto, Dwijanto E S Sulasmi Ediwarman Ediwarman, Ediwarman Edwin Widia Ekaputra, Mohammad Eko Sri Sulasmi Ekobudiwaspada, Agung Erawati, Erna Fachrunnisa, Rifka Fadhlan, Fadhlan Fadlilah, Itsnaini Munjiyatul Fahlepy, Ifaldy Riski Fajar Aji, Fajar Fathia, Neng Annis Fauzan Fuadi Fikriya, Annisa Fitria, Jihan Dina Fitrianda, Widiya Fransiskus, Jhonson Edison Ginanjarputri, Martha Tisna Ginting Suka, Sri Endhayani Gunanto, Adi Guntur Guntur Gustaf Hutabarat, Andy Hadi Purnomo Hadi Suwono Hamid Mukhlis Hamzalouh, Lubna M. Omar Handriyotopo Handriyotopo Hasibuan, Rahmat Anshar HASIM PURBA Herliyana Rosalinda hervana wahyu Prihatmaka, hervana wahyu Hutabarat, Andy Gustaf Hutabarat, Jenrico Louis Iis Purnengsih Iktarishafa, Vindy Reychani Indra Gunara Rochyat Indrayana, Bagus Indri Kusuma Dewi, Indri Kusuma Irawan, Adhitya Candra Izza, Jasmine Nurul Izzati, Aisyah Karohmah, Nur Kartika, Sahnaz Kartono - Kennedy, Kennedy Khadijah, Siti Nur Khoirin, Khoirin Kristina Wijayanti Kurdaningsih, Septi Viantri Kurniawaty Kurniawaty Lestari, Sastri Ayu Limbong, Henman LISTIANA SRI MULATSIH Lubis, Ikhsan Lufti Nasution , Miranda Madiasa Albisar, Madiasa Mahmud Mulyadi MAHMUL SIREGAR Manhuri, Fitri Manik, Candoro Tua Marlina Marlina Marpaung, Abdul Hakim MARTHALENA, YENNY Mohammad Ridwan Multono, Mulyono Mulyono, Andi Murni Sapta Sari Mushlich, Muhammad Ahva Muthia Anas Salma Narulita, Ajeng Alisa Nasution, Dinny Oktariza Nasution, Rezeki Angelia NOPIANTI, NOPIANTI Nova Wulan Priyandani Novalia, Dyah Nugroho, Nur Nurita, Rahayu Tri Nuritasari, Rahayu Tri Nuriyanti, Okta Nurkaromah Dwidayati, Nurkaromah Nurulfatmi Amzy Nurzanah, Eka Panggabean, Fransiska Parinduri, Hamdani Pasaribu, Rizaldy Pawestri, Titi Ayu Perangin-angin, Donsisko Permata, Cintya Putri Prabantarikso, Mahelan Prasetiyo, Sofan Tri Purwo Prihatin Pusdiana, Made Sadika Puspita Eka Wuyung Puspitasari Puspitasari Putra Hsb, Ibnu Habib Ryandi Syah Putra, Tri Arya Putri, Dwi Liana Wella Putri, Rizki Kurnialah Putriaji Hendikawati Qisthi Maghfiroh Qonitah, Parwila Raden Ersnathan Budi Prasetyo Ramadhan, M. Citra Ramadhani, M Ramadhiana, Charinda Bella Reno Abdurahman Reno Abdurrahman Ririn Anjarwati Riswan Munthe, Riswan Ritonga, Syahdani Rizky Wardiman Riyanto, Ina Listyani Rizky, Nikita Robert Robert Robert, Robert Rosnidar Sembiring Safitri, Nadidah Sagala, Liwarny saidin, saidin Santosa Santosa SANTOSO SANTOSO Santrinita Jumame Saragih, Indah Chairani Sari, Intant Sari, M S Sarwanto Sarwanto Sawitri, Riska Agi Scolastika Mariani Selly Puspita Sari Seno Gumira Ajidarma, Seno Gumira Septiana, Nita Tri Setiawati, Putri Siahaan, Gerald Partogi Sidauruk, Jupenris Siegfried, Irene Elfira Dewi Sinaga, Mohd Rizky Siti Aisyah Siti Badriyah Siti Hajar Situmorang, Josua Pebruanto Mangihut Soewarlan, Santosa Sri Wahyuni Muhtar St. Budi Waluya Sudrajat, A K Sugiarto S Sugiman Sugiman Suhadi Suhadi Sukaraja, Detania Sukarja, Detania Sukartara, Nirwansyah Sukestiyarno, Y L Sulisetijono Sulisetijono Sumarlan, Santoso Sumarni Sumarni Sumarno . Surbakti, Benny Avalona Suryani, Rafika Sutejo, Aris Sutiarnoto Sutiarnoto Suyanto Suyanto Syarifah Lisa Andriati Sylvia Kartika Dhamayanti Tarsisius Murwadji Tentrem. R.T, Susi Thahir, Irfan Farid Tony Tony Triastono Imam Prasetyo Triredjeki, Hermani Trisakti, Intan Trisna, Wessy Tulus Puji Hastuti Umi Fitriyati Utami, Linda Veronica, Rahayu Budhiati Veronica, Rahayu Budhiati Wahyudi, Ichsan Walid Walid, Walid Wicaksono, R S Widita, Cintya Sukma Widya Arisandy Widyastutieningrum, Sri Rochana Wulandari, Novi Citra Yuninggar Renaningtyas Yuwono, Purwanto Yugo Zafi, Bayu Indah Syafinatu Zahra Firdaus