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The economic crisis in 1997 has caused the rupiah exchange rate to depreciate from about Rp 2,500/US dollar to Rp 15,000/US dollar in the time of crisis and to around Rp 9,300/US dollar recently.  This condition caused the authority to focus their policy in stabilizing rupiah  and reducing inflation rate.  The objectives of this research are firstly, to analyze the response of the variables of industrial production index (IPI), money supply and interest rate when the shocks to exchange rate and M. Ilham Riyadh; Rina Oktaviani; Hermanto Siregar
Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol. 32 No. 3 (2009): Forum Pascasarjana
Publisher : Forum Pasca Sarjana

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Abstract

The economic crisis in 1997 has caused the rupiah exchange rate to depreciate from about Rp 2,500/US dollar to Rp 15,000/US dollar in the time of crisis and to around Rp 9,300/US dollar recently.  This condition caused the authority to focus their policy in stabilizing rupiah  and reducing inflation rate.  The objectives of this research are firstly, to analyze the response of the variables of industrial production index (IPI), money supply and interest rate when the shocks to exchange rate and inflation take place; secondly, to analyze the contributions of  IPI, inflation rate, money supply and interest rate differentiation in explaining the variation of exchange rate and inflation rate of Indonesia; and thirdly, to formulate the monetary policy of implication stabilizing the rupiah and inflation rate.  The results show that the shock to the rupiah exchange rate has resulted in a very high depreciation responded by an increase in money supply and price but IPI decreases.  To reduce depreciation, authority can increase the interest rate. Meanwhile the shock to inflation are responded directly by increases in Bank Indonesia certificate rate so that the money supply decreases, exchange rate appreciates, and IPI decreases.  To stabilize the rupiah exchange rate and the inflation rate, monetary authority should carry out the tight money policy through a relatively high interest rate, so capital inflow will take place.   Key words: monetary policy, rupiah exchange rate, inflation rate, industrial production index, vector autoregressive
Transmigration program has been done for many years. However, many transmigration sites are identified as underdeveloped, especially in upland farm transmigration site laboured with food crops. The main constraint for such development relates with the limit of upland resource in supporting plant growth. The upland resources is generally marginal in physical properties (undulating, wavy and hilly topography); the poor quality in land clearing which cause removal upper layer and loss of organic ma Benar Darius Ginting; Muhammad Syamsul Maarif; Surjono H. Sutjahjo; Hermanto Siregar
Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol. 31 No. 1 (2008): Forum Pascasarjana
Publisher : Forum Pasca Sarjana

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Abstract

Transmigration program has been done for many years. However, many transmigration sites are identified as underdeveloped, especially in upland farm transmigration site laboured with food crops. The main constraint for such development relates with the limit of upland resource in supporting plant growth. The upland resources is generally marginal in physical properties (undulating, wavy and hilly topography); the poor quality in land clearing which cause removal upper layer and loss of organic matter; relatively high rainfall intensity which causes the high erosivity. Such degradation has caused accumulation of problem for farmer. This research in erosion is done in order to know the strategy needed to be done. This research is done in Rantau Pandan SP 1 as case study. Several methods have been applied to determine 1) the amount of erosions 2) the permissible erosion, 3) the spatial pattern of erosion,and 4) the soil conservation action.   Key words: upland farming system, erosion, conservation
Migration is a natural process to distribute labor surplus in origin regions to destination regions having a high level of labor demand, but in recent years migration causes labor surplus and unemployment in the destination region.  The objective of this paper is to analyze the influence of migration on labor market behavior and to evaluate the impact of internal migration policy on labor market behavior in Indonesia.  To reach this objective, a simultaneous equation model containing 15 structur Safrida .; Bonar M. Sinaga; Hermanto Siregar; Harianto .
Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol. 31 No. 2 (2008): Forum Pascasarjana
Publisher : Forum Pasca Sarjana

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Migration is a natural process to distribute labor surplus in origin regions to destination regions having a high level of labor demand, but in recent years migration causes labor surplus and unemployment in the destination region.  The objective of this paper is to analyze the influence of migration on labor market behavior and to evaluate the impact of internal migration policy on labor market behavior in Indonesia.  To reach this objective, a simultaneous equation model containing 15 structural equations and 5 identities equations are constructed.  The analysis use time series 1985-2006 data.  Model was estimated by 2SLS method and simulation was used the Newton method.  The results of this research indicated that migration influence labor supply in Jawa, Kalimantan and other island.  Factors that influence labor demand in Java are amount of industry and government development expenditure, but in Sumatera, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and other island influenced by total investment, government development expenditure and lag labor demand.  The impact of internal migration policy on labor market by way of increasing minimum wage can not solve labor market problem because the policy cause increase unemployment in each island.  The impact of increasing minimum wage and government development expenditure can solve labor market problem through decreasing unemployment, although average wage in each island is increasing.  The policy can also solve distribution of population by way of decreasing migration to Jawa.   Key words: internal migration, labor market
The objectives of this research were analyzing the performance of agricultural  sector and agroindustry, relation between fiscal policy and performance of agricultural sector and agroindustry; analyzing fiscal policy instruments which were effective in influencing the agricultural sector performance and agroindustry performance, and relation between agricultural sector performance and agroindustry performance within fiscal condition of Indonesia. Data time series 1970.1 – 2005.5 were analyzed wi Darsono .; Mangara Tambunan; Hermanto Siregar; D. S. Priyarsono
Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol. 31 No. 3 (2008): Forum Pascasarjana
Publisher : Forum Pasca Sarjana

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Abstract

The objectives of this research were analyzing the performance of agricultural  sector and agroindustry, relation between fiscal policy and performance of agricultural sector and agroindustry; analyzing fiscal policy instruments which were effective in influencing the agricultural sector performance and agroindustry performance, and relation between agricultural sector performance and agroindustry performance within fiscal condition of Indonesia. Data time series 1970.1 – 2005.5 were analyzed with Vector Error Correction Model (VECM).  Research results showed that decrease in the performance of agriculture sector occurred in all aspects and its role in the economy, and the same phenomena occurred also in agroindustry.  Instruments of fiscal policy which in the long term affect strongly the performance of agricultural sector and agroindustry were budgets for the following: sector of agriculture, agricultural research and development, agriculture infrastructure, and fiscal decentralization. Performance respond of agricultural sector and agroindustry toward shock  of fiscal policy instruments, to achieve stability, took relatively long period (9 and 8 years respectively). Performance respond of agroindustry toward shock of agricultural sector, to achieve stability, took 6 years period.  Instruments of fiscal policy which were in the long term effective in improving  agricultural sector performance were value added tax, agriculture subsidy, budget for agriculture research and development, budget for agriculture infrastructure, and fiscal decentralization.  Instruments of fiscal policy which were in the long term effective in improving the performance of agroindustry were income tax, value added tax, budget for agriculture infrastructure, and fiscal decentralization.  Performance of agricultural sector which had roles in affecting the variability of agroindustry performance were GDP of agriculture, export and import of agricultural products. Key words:  fiscal policy, agricultural sector, agroindustry
The implementation of fiscal decentralization in accordance with Law No 32/2004 regarding local government and No. 33/2004 regarding inter-government fiscal relationship was considered as the new era management and local government budget.  The objectives of this study were (1) to identify factors affecting regional fiscal, regional economy, poverty ond food security and (2) to evaluate impact of fiscal decentralization policy on poverty and food security in West Java.  The descriptive analysis Wiwiek Rindayati; Bunasor Sanim; M. Parulian Hutagaol; Hermanto Siregar
Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol. 31 No. 4 (2008): Forum Pascasarjana
Publisher : Forum Pasca Sarjana

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Abstract

The implementation of fiscal decentralization in accordance with Law No 32/2004 regarding local government and No. 33/2004 regarding inter-government fiscal relationship was considered as the new era management and local government budget.  The objectives of this study were (1) to identify factors affecting regional fiscal, regional economy, poverty ond food security and (2) to evaluate impact of fiscal decentralization policy on poverty and food security in West Java.  The descriptive analysis and dynamic simultaneous equation models were used in this study, using pooled time series data of 1995-2005 and cross section data of 13 kabupatens estimated using the 2SLS method.  The result of the study showed that the DAU was the source of 68% of regional income.The routine expenditures were the largest regional expenditures (77%).  The policy of increasing agricultural development expenditures and wages affect poverty alleviation and increase food security in West Java.   Key words: fiscal decentralization, economics growth, poverty allevation, food security
HUBUNGAN ANTARA KORUPSI DENGAN PERKEMBANGAN PASAR SAHAM DAN PERBANKAN: KAJIAN EMPIRIS PADA SEMBILAN NEGARA DIKAWASAN ASEAN+3 Muhammad Fazri; Hermanto Siregar; Heni Hasanah
Jurnal Ekonomi Pembangunan Vol. 15 No. 1 (2017): JURNAL EKONOMI PEMBANGUNAN
Publisher : Pusat Pengkajian Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Publik

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.22219/jep.v15i1.4643

Abstract

Banking and stock market are two financial institutions which play an important role in the economic development process. Many studies suggest that the development of banking and stock market are able to increase the economic growth. There are factors which influence the development of these two financial institutions, for example macroeconomic stability and institutional influences such as corruption. This study aims to analyze how corruption affects the development of banking and stock market and also tries to identify the role of development of banking to reduce corruption. This study uses panel data for nine countries of ASEAN +3 region, during 2003-2012. The result shows that corruption hinders the development of banking and stock market. In addition, banking development will reduce corruption.
ANALISIS FLUKTUASI DOLLAR AMERIKA SERIKAT TERHADAP RUPIAH DI SAAT DAN SETELAH KRISIS SUBPRIME MORTGAGE 2007 - 2013 Gustiyan Taufik Mahardika; Hermanto Siregar; Dedi Budiman Hakim
Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Vol 3, No. 2, Oktober 2014
Publisher : Faculty of Economic and Business Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University of Jakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (544.574 KB) | DOI: 10.15408/sigf.v3i2.2060

Abstract

In a floating system, exchange rates fluctuate due to macroeconomic conditions that occur. Due to the uncertainty caused by economic shocks or financial crises such as subprime mortgage crisis, fluctuation analysis can be used to minimize the risks that arise in business that involve exchange rates such as export/import or hedge funds. This study aims to analyze the fluctuations in the exchange rate during and after the subprime mortgage crisis 2007 – 2013 in order to give a better understanding on the dynamics of the exchange rate. By analyzing the dynamics, individuals or companies that make the currency as a component in its business can then decide the right policy to implement. Analyses were performed using an error correction model (ECM) for nominal (NER) and real exchange rate (RER). The variables that are proven significant for NER are money supply (JUB), current account (CAB), economic growth (EGROW), and the nominal central bank rate (NBIRATE). The dummy crisis variable did not have a significant effect on the NER, while the CAB affect NER in the short run only, and EGROW affect NER in the long run only.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v3i2.2060
The Determinants of Indonesian Textile’s and Clothing Export to the Five Countries of Export Destination Faizal Irvansyah; Hermanto Siregar; Tanti Novianti
ETIKONOMI Vol 19, No 1 (2020)
Publisher : Faculty of Economic and Business

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (173.841 KB) | DOI: 10.15408/etk.v19i1.14845

Abstract

Indonesian textile and clothing products (TPT) is the second-largest export product after oil palm product. There are five biggest export destination countries, that is the United States, Japan, South Korea, and Turkey. This study aims to analyze the factors that affect TPT exports to the five biggest export destination countries. The factors that affect TPT exports examined by using time series and panel data analysis. Using panel data analysis finds that GDP per capita of the destination country, the exchange rate of the Rupiah, the price of textiles in the destination country, and import tariffs stipulate in the destination country affect TPT exports. Then, using time series analysis finds that GDP per capita and import tariffs affected TPT export to the United States, China, and Turkey. Meanwhile, the factors influencing Indonesian textile exports to Japan and South Korea are textile prices, rupiah exchange rates, and import tariffs.JEL Classification: F14, F43How to Cite:Irvansyah, F., Siregar, H., & Novianti, T. (2020). The Determinants of Indonesian Textile’s and Clothing Export to the Five Countries of Export Destination. Etikonomi: Jurnal Ekonomi, 19(1), 19 – 30. https://doi.org/10.15408/etk.v19i1.14845.
The Value at Risk of Selling Option on Crude Oil West Texas Intermediate Abitur Asianto; Hermanto Siregar; Roy Sembel; Tubagus Nur Ahmad Maulana
ETIKONOMI Vol 18, No 1 (2019)
Publisher : Faculty of Economic and Business

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (423.147 KB) | DOI: 10.15408/etk.v18i1.7319

Abstract

The Value at Risk (VaR) of selling the option on crude oil WTI has not widely known, whereas this trade is the most significant transactions in the world. This study aimed to analyze the Value at Risk (VaR) of the far out of the money (FOTM) and the in the money (ITM) strike position of selling option on crude oil WTI investment. The monthly option premium return data ranging from April 1984 to May 2017 was analyzed by the ARCH-GARCH and VaR method to get the risk of FOTM and ITM strike position. Empirical results indicate that the risk of the FOTM strike was much lower than the ITM strike positions. It meant that selecting the FOTM strike position of the selling option on crude oil WTI investment could be considered by stakeholders because its risk was much lower than the ITM strike position.JEL Classification: C32, G19, G32
Analysis of El Ni˜no Impact and the Price of Food Commodities on Inflation Bronson Marpaung; Hermanto Siregar; Lukytawati Anggraeni
Jurnal Ikatan Sarjana Ekonomi Indonesia Vol 8 No 1 (2019): August
Publisher : Jurnal Ekonomi Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.52813/jei.v8i1.11

Abstract

Volatile foods are a concern because this group is a significant contributor to inflation. Food production is very vulnerable to supply disruptions such as El Ni˜no weather and other weather disturbances. This study analyzes the influence of El Ni˜no on food Commodities and, inflation, in 25 provinces in Indonesia in 2008–2015 using the data panel method. The dependent variable in this study is inflation. While the independent variables are food commodities such as Prices of Chili, Onions, Rice, Soybeans, Corn, El Ni˜ no, and Inflation. El Ni˜no and the price of food commodities have a positive and significant effect on inflation.
Co-Authors . Lukytawati . Mahyuddin ., Harianto AA Sudharmawan, AA Abitur Asianto Adhitya Wardhana Adis Imam Munandar Adler H. Manurung Adler Haymans Manurung Affendi Anwar Agus Lukman Hakim Ahmad Aris, Ahmad Ahmad Naufaldy Pasaribu Ahmad, Fahmi Salam Aini Nurachman Dini Akbar, Chaeka Fitria Ramadhania Akbar, Dudi Duta Akhmad Fauzi Akhmadi Akhmadi Alim, Muhammad sahirul Alla Asmara Alya Dinda Nurrahmi Amzul Rifin Andam Dewi Andrea Emma Pravitasari, Andrea Emma Anggelina Delviana Klau Anny Ratnawati Aprilia Sukmawati Apriyana, Alfin Ardila, Fitri Aning Dwi Ardina Puspitasari Arham Rivai Ari Binuko Arief Darjanto Arief Daryanto Arief Daryanto Arif Imam Suroso Arif Naldi Aris, Diba Anggraini Aristo Purboadji ASEP SAEFUDDIN Asirin, Asirin Astoeti Wahjoe Widiarti Avianto, Wahyu Aviliani Aviliani Azis, Muh. Ikhsan Aziz, Lukmanul Hakim Azizah B D Nasendi Baba Barus Bagio Baida Soraya Bambang Juanda Bandono, Bayu Basyid Ahmad Bayu Bandono Benar Darius Ginting Benny Kurniawan Boedi Tjahjono Bonar M Sinaga Bonar M Sinaga, Bonar M Bonar M. Sinaga Bonar Marulitua Sinaga Bronson Marpaung Bunasor Sanim Bungaran Saragih Bungaran Saragih Bustanul Arifin D. S. Priyarsono D. S. Priyarsono Dahri Dahri Darmawan, Indra Darsono . Deddy S. Bratakusumah Dedi Budiman Hakim Desi Maryanti Diana Septiningrum Diana Septiningrum, Diana Dikky Indrawan Dirga, Satria Prawira Ditha Mangiri Djajuli, Idja Dodik Ridho Nurrochmat Dominicus Savio Priyarsono Dudi S. Hendrawan Dwi Haryono Dwi Suprastyo DWI SURYANTO Dyan Vidyatmoko Dyan Vidyatmoko E. Batara Manurung E. Gumbira-Sa’id Ebed Hamri Eddi Wahyudi, Eddi Eddy Silamat Eduart Wolok Edwin Mahatir Muhammad Ramadhan Eka Intan KP Eka Intan Kumala Putri Eko Wahyu Nugrahadi Endah Murniningtyas Endah Murniningtyas ENDANG SUHENDANG Endriatmo Soetarto Eri Susanto Hariyadi Eri Susanto Hariyadi, Eri Susanto Eriyatno . ERLINA Erlina Erlina Erliza Noor Ernan Rustiadi Erwin Susanto Sadirsan Evi Lisna Evita H. Legowo Fahriyah Fahriyah Faizal Irvansyah Faizul Mubarok Farida Farida Fauzi, Firman Fazri, Muhammad Febriyana, Alfonsia Ferry Ardiansyah Ferry Syarifuddin Ferry Syarifuddin Ferry Syarifuddin Fitria Yuliani Fitriana, Rizqi Gonarsyah, Isang Gustiyan Taufik Mahardika Hadi, Setia Hadiwidjaja, Rini Dwiyani Hakim, Dedi Budiman Hani Laksono Hannoeriadi A., Ivan Hapsari, Umi Indah Harahap, Muhammad Syafril Hardinsyah Hariandja, Nancy Megawati Harianto Harianto Harianto . Harianto Harianto Harianto Harianto Harianto Harianto Harianto Harianto Harianto Harianto Hastori, . Hendri Tanjung Hendro Sasongko Hendro Sasongko Heni Hasanah Hermawan, Rachmad Heru Kustanto Hery Setiawan Heti Mulyati I Gusti Putu Wigena I Wayan Mangku I Wayan Nuka Lantara Ichsan Ichsan, Aulia Idqan Fahmi Ilham, Nyak Ilham, Nyak Illah Sailah Imam Teguh Saptono Imam Teguh Saptono Iman Widhiyanto Iman Widhiyanto Indra Darmawan Indra Gunawan Indra Gunawan Indraprahasta, Galuh Syahbana Ingratubun, Muhammad A Ingrit, Ingrit Irfan Syauqi Beik Isang Gonarsyah Ismail, Ahmad Faizal Ivan Hannoeriadi A. Iyan Anriansyah Jajang Jajang Johan Firmansyah Joko S. Usman Jonahar Joyo Winoto Joyo Winoto, Joyo Kadar, Laila Kodrat Wibowo Kusnadi - Kustanto, Heru Lala M Kolopaking Latuconsina, Olivia CH Limetry Liana Mey Limetry Liana, Limetry Liston Siringo Ringo Lokot Zein Nasution, Lokot Zein Lukman M. Baga Lukytawati Anggraeni Lukytawati, . M Parulian Hutagaol M Parulian Hutagaol M. Bobby Afif Nasution M. Husein Sawit M. Ilham Riyadh M. Parulian Hutagaol M. R. Yantu M. Said Didu M. Suryadinata, M. Suryadinata M. Syamsul Maarif Machfud Machfud Machmud, Musdhalifah MANGARA TAMBUNAN Mangara Tambunan Mangasa Augustinus Sipahutar, Mangasa Augustinus Manuwoto, Manuwoto Marpaung, Lenny Romauli Martua Eliakim Tambunan Marulitua Sinaga, Bonar Maulana, Muhamad Neko Maulana, Tubagus NA Megasari, Debbie Minesa, Punti Moch Hadi Santoso Moch. Hadi Santoso Moch. Hadi Santoso Mochammad Imron Awalludin Mohammad Nur Hadi Mudinillah, Adam Muhammad Arief Dirgantoro Muhammad Fazri Muhammad Fazri Muhammad Firdaus muhammad Firdaus Muhammad Firdaus Muhammad Firdaus Muhammad Nanang Prayudyanto Mulya E. Siregar Mulya E. Siregar Mulya E. Siregar Mulya Siregar Murti, Prima Puspita Indra Nadiah Hidayati Nashwari, Inti Pertiwi Nasution, Sahruddin Naufaldy Pasaribu, Ahmad nFN Sudradjat Nila Rifai Nimmi Zulbainarni nirdukita ratnawati, nirdukita Nugroho Setyo Utomo Nunung Kusnadi Nunung Nuryartono Nur Hasanah Nur Hasanah Nurcahningsih, Astrika Erlin Nurcahyaningsih, Astrika Erlin Nurlaila Firdani Fajri Nyak Ilham Nyak Ilham Oktovianus Pantjar Simatupang Parulian Hutagaol Perdana Wahyu Santoso Permadi, Hengki Petrus F.T.P. Tampubolon Prabono Roeshardianto Pratikto Winardi Bakhram Prima, Ghaniy Ridha Purwanta, Putri Ayu Purwoko, Agus Putri, Rizavia Mardhika R Marsuki Iswandi R Susila, Wayan Rachmat Pambudy Rahmanta Rahmanta Rahmanta, Rahmanta Ranti Wiliasih Renaldo Prima Sutikno Rezki Erdian Ries Wulandari, Ries Rifki Ismal Rina Oktaviani Rina Oktaviani Rina Oktaviani Rina Oktaviani Rini Dwiyani Hadiwidjaja Riny Kusumawati Ristianto Pribadi Ristiyanto, Nirwan Ristiyanto, Nirwan Riyanto Riyanto Rizal Rahman H. Teapon Rizavia Mardhika Putri Roeshardianto, Prabono Roy Sembel Roy Sembel Rulhendri Rulhendri Safrida . Sajudi, Aditya Santun R.P. Sitorus Sarma, Ma’mun Satriadi, Dharma Sekarlaras, Amanda Fortuna Arum Sembel, Roy H. M. Setia Hadi Setia Hadi Setiadi Djohar Setiawan, Andi Sinaga, Jovan Siregar, Mulya E Siti Aida Adha Taridala Situmorang, Kaspar Sjafri Mangkuprawira Sofyan Sjaf Sri Hartoyo Sri Hartoyo Sri Mulatsih Sri Mulatsih Sri Nuryanti Sri Wahyuni Stephen Thenu Sugema, Iman Sugeng Budiharsono Sugimin Pranoto Sugiyanto Sugiyanto Suhardiono, Suhardiono Sul, Suliamin Kasnar Suprehatin Surjono H. Sutjahjo Surtiati Surtiati Surya Abadi Sembiring Suryaningsih, Widiani Sutikno, Renaldo Prima Sutriono Edi Suwarno Suwarno Suwinto Johan Syahbana, Galuh Syahrir, Azhar Syaiful . Syaiful Syaiful Syaiful Syaiful Syamsul Arifin Syamsul Hidayat Pasaribu Syamsul Ma'arif Syarifuddin, Ferry Syarifuddin, Ferry Syauqi, Muhamad Sylvia Sandyazmara Devi Tanti Novianti Taofiq Rachmat Tatik Mariyanti, Tatik TB Nur Ahmad Maulana Tb. N Ahmad Maulana, Tb. N Ahmad Tony Irawan Trias Andati Trias Andati Trias Andati Trias Andati Trias Andati Trias Andati Trias Andati Trias Andati Tubagus Nur Ahmad Maulana Tubagus Nur Ahmad Maulana Tubagus Nur Ahmad Maulana Tutut Sunarminto Usman - Vidyatmoko, Dyan Wibisono, Afrid Widhiyanto, Iman Widyastutik Winardi Winardi Winardi Winardi Winardi, Winardi Winoto, Joyo Wiwiek Rindayati Wonny A. Ridwan Wulandari Kuswahariani Wulandari, Lita Wurdaningsih Yantu, M. R. Yati Nuryati Yenna Sri Mardiana Yulismi, Yulismi Yusman Syaukat Yusman Syaukat Z. Karim, Taufik