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Dewi ANGGRAENI
Universitas Surabaya
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Journal : J-Com (Journal of Computer)

 1 
KOMPARASI PENDEKATAN SES DAN SMA UNTUK PREDIKSI HASIL PRODUKSI KELAPA SAWIT Fahdrina, Jihan Aulia Putri; Anggraeni, Dewi; Santoso, Santoso
J-Com (Journal of Computer) Vol 5, No 1 (2025): MARET 2025
Publisher : LPPM STMIK Royal Kisaran

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33330/j-com.v5i1.3812

Abstract

Abstract: Palm oil is a key commodity that requires accurate production planning to support budget and operational efficiency. PT Buana Sawit Indah, a company managing palm oil plantations, faces challenges in forecasting future production, necessitating a computerized forecasting system. This study aims to develop a forecasting system using the Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) and Single Moving Average (SMA) methods to predict palm oil production. The results indicate that both methods are effective; however, SMA with a Moving Average (MA) of 5 provides the best forecasting results, with a MAD of 165,941.64, an MSE of 65,823,372,491.27, and an MAPE of 15.66%, categorized as "good" forecasting. Meanwhile, the SES method with α = 0.9 yields the lowest error compared to other alpha values, with a MAD of 154,586.25, an MSE of 33,192,818,696.83, and an MAPE of 16.91%, also classified as "good" forecasting. Based on these findings, the SMA method with MA 5 is recommended as it produces lower forecasting errors than the SES method. Therefore, this forecasting system can assist the company in planning palm oil production more accurately and efficiently, supporting better decision-making in the future.  Keywords: palm oil; forecasting; production; single exponential smoothing; single moving average Abstrak: Kelapa sawit merupakan komoditas utama yang memerlukan perencanaan produksi yang akurat untuk mendukung efisiensi anggaran dan operasional. PT Buana Sawit Indah, salah satu perusahaan yang mengelola perkebunan kelapa sawit, sedang menghadapi kesulitan dalam memperkirakan hasil produksi di masa mendatang, sehingga diperlukan sistem peramalan berbasis komputer. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengembangkan sistem peramalan menggunakan metode Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) dan Single Moving Average (SMA) untuk memprediksi produksi kelapa sawit. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kedua metode cukup efektif, namun SMA dengan Moving Average (MA) 5 memberikan hasil peramalan terbaik dengan nilai MAD sebesar 165.941,64, MSE sebesar 65.823.372.491,27, dan MAPE sebesar 15,66%, yang dikategorikan sebagai peramalan “bagus.” Sementara itu, metode SES dengan α = 0,9 menunjukkan nilai kesalahan lebih rendah dibanding nilai alpha lain, dengan MAD sebesar 154.586,25, MSE sebesar 33.192.818.696,83, dan MAPE sebesar 16,91%, yang juga termasuk kategori peramalan “bagus.” Berdasarkan hasil tersebut, metode SMA dengan MA 5 lebih direkomendasikan karena menghasilkan tingkat kesalahan yang lebih rendah dibandingkan metode SES. Dengan demikian, sistem peramalan ini dapat membantu perusahaan dalam merencanakan produksi kelapa sawit secara lebih akurat dan efisien untuk mendukung pengambilan keputusan yang lebih baik di masa mendatang. Kata kunci: kelapa sawit; peramalan; produksi; single exponential smoothing; single moving average
Penerapan Strategi E-Crm Pada Usaha Banana Chips By Risa Afnida, Riska Fadila; Anggraeni, Dewi; Apridonal M, Yori
J-Com (Journal of Computer) Vol. 5 No. 2 (2025): JULI 2025
Publisher : STMIK Royal Kisaran

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.33330/j-com.v5i2.4171

Abstract

Abstract: In today's digital era, small businesses like Banana Chips By Risa face significant challenges in enhancing relationships and services to customers. This research identifies various issues related to technology adoption, including the lack of an online purchasing system, minimal product information, and limited flavor variations. In an increasingly competitive context, the application of information technology becomes crucial to meet the ever-evolving customer expectations. This study aims to design an E-CRM system that can support more effective customer relationship management. E-CRM is a technology-based tool that collects and stores customer data, enhances communication, personalizes services, and analyzes data for better decision-making. Additionally, this system integrates a digital loyalty program expected to increase customer engagement. Several questions arise from the issues faced, including: how to effectively implement an online purchasing system, steps to improve product information, and how to develop new flavor variations that align with customer preferences. The research results indicate that the implementation of E-CRM not only enhances operational efficiency but also strengthens long-term relationships between the business and customers, supporting success in a business environment increasingly influenced by technology. Keywords: e-crm; digital technology; customer loyalty; product Information. Abstrak: Di era digital saat ini, usaha kecil seperti Banana Chips By Risa menghadapi tantangan signifikan dalam meningkatkan hubungan dan pelayanan kepada pelanggan. Penelitian ini mengidentifikasi berbagai masalah terkait adopsi teknologi, termasuk kurangnya sistem pembelian daring, minimnya informasi produk, dan keterbatasan varian rasa. Dalam konteks persaingan yang semakin ketat, penerapan teknologi informasi menjadi krusial untuk memenuhi harapan pelanggan yang terus berkembang. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk merancang sistem E-CRM yang dapat mendukung pengelolaan hubungan pelanggan secara lebih efektif. E-CRM adalah alat berbasis teknologi yang mengumpulkan dan menyimpan data pelanggan, meningkatkan komunikasi, mempersonalisasi layanan, serta menganalisis data untuk pengambilan keputusan yang lebih tepat. Selain itu, sistem ini juga mengintegrasikan program loyalitas berbasis digital yang diharapkan dapat meningkatkan keterikatan pelanggan. Beberapa pertanyaan yang muncul dari masalah yang dihadapi termasuk: bagaimana cara mengimplementasikan sistem pembelian daring yang efektif, langkah-langkah untuk meningkatkan informasi produk, serta cara mengembangkan varian rasa baru yang sesuai dengan preferensi pelanggan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa penerapan E-CRM tidak hanya meningkatkan efisiensi operasional, tetapi juga memperkuat hubungan jangka panjang antara usaha dan pelanggan, mendukung keberhasilan dalam lingkungan bisnis yang semakin dipengaruhi oleh teknologi. Kata kunci: e-crm; teknologi digital; loyalitas pelanggan; informasi produk
Co-Authors . Ahsan, . 12.520.20.206 Shinta Ratnawati, 12.520.20.206 A Rumawak, Sarah A, Renetha Salma Myesha Abdul Fadhil, Abdul Abidi, Ihsan Abriyanti, Rika Mustika Adam Alamsyah, Juan Ade Putra Adi Putra Adi Wibowo, Nur Adi, Eko Teguh Purwito Adiati Pratomo, Luki Adri, Nurul Aekram Faisal Afnida, Riska Fadila Aisyah Zubaidah Akhmad Afroni Akmal Akmal Alfin, Riandi Alfons, Alfred Benjamin Amaliah, Anisah Z Amaliyah Amalo, Elizabeth Anggraeni Amir, Muhammad Amma Chorida Adila Anggraini, Fevi Dwi Anindit, Mutia Anshari, Ahmad Apriantoro, Roni Apridonal M, Yori Aprilia, Faridha Aqilia Atsila Arief Fath Atiya Arif Bramantyo, Hutama Arif Bramantyo Arinto Yudi Ponco Wardoyo Asmoro, Renetha Salma Myesha astarini, dyah Astriani, Nurullita Aswani, Aprilza Az Zahra, Layla Bagus Kisworo, Bagus Bakarbessy, Dominggus Bambang Suhartawan Bayu Suko Wahono Budi, Didik Rilastiyo Chaerunnisa, Chaerunnisa Corzita, Lieza D. Dafik Daawia, Daawia Dewi Anggraeni Dewi Rani, Ajeng Dian Kusuma Ningrum, Dian Kusuma Dian Safitri, Ayu Diniatik Diniatik Dita Amalia Djamester Simarmata Djoni Hartono Dudi Anandya Dwi Purwoko E. N. H. Paririe, Vlindercia Efendi, Yahya Ernawati, Dedeh Ernawati, Nimas Jimi Esthika Dewiasty, Esthika Fachri Ali Fachruddin, Sutiyana Fahdrina, Jihan Aulia Putri Fahira, Vitria Faizatul Adzima Fakhizati, Uzmatul Febriani, Ayu Rizki Festiawan, Rifqi Firdausy, Erina Fitri Fitri Fitriyani Fitriyani Fitroh Aida Amelia Gumilar Irfanullah, Gumilar Hadiyanto, Andy Hadwi Widi Sasono, Sindung Hafizh, Deri Hakam, Ahmad Halimatunnisa Asya’diyah Yusya Hamdani, Nizar Alam HAPSARI, PRAMESTHI WIDYA Harahap, Indra Ramadona Haurissa, Ryan Hawa, Anjani Anil Herlianti, Anggun Oktavia Hernani, Eni Hernani, Eny Hery Setijasa, Hery Heza, Fuad Noor Hidayat, Rohman Husni Mubarok Hutagaol, Vria Ibnu Amar, Ibnu Idhawati Hestiningsih Ifrak, Karim Indra Jati Kusuma Irawati, Diana Irfanullah, Gumilar Iriyanto, Santje M Irsanty Collein Ismail, Yusuf Ismail, Yusuf Jahen Fachrul Rezki Juferdy Kurniawan Juliyanto, Bagus Jumaiyah, Wati Karach, Ramadiansyah Anasan Karnasi, Reniati Khafifi, Bagus Farhan Koto, Zulkarnein Kurniawan, Putu Hari Kusuma, Muhammad Nanang Himawan Kusumaningsih, Ambar Lestari, Henny Setyo Listiandi, Arfin Deri Lutfie Lutfie, Lutfie M. Bahrul Ilmi M.Kharis Maulana Maharani, Dewi Masrul Mega Nur Prabawati, Mega Nur Melisa Kurniasari Mia Hasanah Amanah Illahi Mirino, Gyovin Ebzan Wildenow Misbahuddin Azzuhri Mohammad Khambali, Mohammad Muftachina, Nahdia Muh Yusuf Muhamad Jaeni Muhamad Zuhdi Asyauqi Muhammad Irsal Muhammad Rizki Muhammad Yusuf Muminova, Zarina Mutammam Mutammam Mutammam, Mutammam Nafis, Abdul Wadud Nailil Muna Nata, Andri Neva Widanita Ngaderman, Theodora Noviana, Dewi Nur Aisyah Nuriah, Yuyun Nurmaningtyas, Anggia Riani NURWAHIDAH NURWAHIDAH Nurwana, Nurwana Nurwati Nurwati Oktaviana Matusin, ina Palayukan, Dina Pandiya, Pandiya Paska, Yesica Apriliana Permata, Amelia Piliang, Rizaldi Pramundhitya, Maria Pratama, Koernia Nanda Puspita, Mayang Bunga Putra, Guntur Maha Putri, Nurul Fadila Putri, Pristiyanilicia Putri, Resta Ayuning Putri, Resta Ayuning Rabiyah, Ulfa Rahayu, Aura Rahmadhani, Siti Rahmat Kamal Rahmawati, Yana Rahmawati, Yana Ramadhani, Muh Ramadhanti, Mutiara Ramadhany, Muzaki Ramlah Ramlah Rangkuti, Bucin Ramadhani Rani, Ajeng Dewi Rayasari, Fitrian Reliubun, Lukman Nurdiansyah Riandita, Lilik Ridwan Arifin Risalatul Latifah Rizaldi, Rizaldi ROHMAWATI KUSUMANINGTIAS Rosiliwati Wihardja, Rosiliwati Rumawak, Sarah Agustina Rungsimanop, Hattarawadee Sadewo, Satrio Tegar Safitri, Nanda Amalia Salsabila, Nabila Almas Salsabilah, Dzakiyah Salwa, Ahda Febzia Sanjaya, Rizki Santoso Santoso Sembor, Thelly Sembor, Thelly SH Sheliyana, Putri Shinta Gunawati Sutoro Silalahi, Lenny Erida Silvia Margaretha Sinaga, Hommy Dorthy Ellyany Sintawati, Naila Slamet Widodo Sofafia, Efa SRI ATUN Sri Hardiningsih Sri Rezki Maulina Azmi Sri Tjahajawati, Sri Suhartoyo*, Topo Sunardin, Sunardin Suparman Suparman Supratman Supratman, Supratman Supriyaningsih, Eny Susi Setiawani SUTRISNO Suyatmi Syamsul Arifin Syamsul Ph.D M.A. Hadi Taba, Herman HI Tjolleng Tahan Prahara, Tahan Prahara Tantri Yanuar Rahmat Syah Tanwir, Tanwir Tika Christy Triswantoro Putro Urfan Hadi Rahman Wa Ode Sifatu Widhowati, Azarine Aisyah Widiatmoko, Mahfud Edy Widjajaatmadja, Dhody Ar. Yannice Luma Marnala Sitorus Yuliani, Rozi Zaenal Mustakim Zafiroh Afiani Zebua, Mercyana Trianne Zuliani, Peri Zulkifli Lubis