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Journal : contemporary mathematics and applications conmatha

 1 
Application of the ARIMA-GARCH Model for Forecasting Indonesia's Monthly Inflation Rate Anisa; Yudistira, Ira; Yulianto, Tony
Contemporary Mathematics and Applications (ConMathA) Vol. 7 No. 1 (2025)
Publisher : Universitas Airlangga

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.20473/conmatha.v7i1.60263

Abstract

Inflation is one of the important aspects that is used as a benchmark to see economic growth and economic conditions in each country. Inflation has resulted in increasing public expenditure in meeting basic needs. Inflation must be controlled to maintain the economic stability of a country, including Indonesia. Therefore, there is a need for a model that can forecast the inflation rate in Indonesia. The aim of this research is to create a model that can predict future inflation levels so that it can help the government in determining policies related to controlling inflation in Indonesia. The data used is monthly inflation data in Indonesia for 19 years from March 2007- October 2023 in percentage form. The forecasting model used in this study is the ARIMA-GARCH model. The ARIMA model is a time series model used to forecast future data based on past data. While GARCH is a time series model used to overcome heteroscedasticity in the ARIMA model. Inflation data will be modeled using the ARIMA model and then continued by modeling the residuals using the GARCH model if heteroscedasticity occurs in the ARIMA model residuals. Based on data analysis that has been done, the best model for inflation forecasting cases in Indonesia is the ARIMA (2,0,2) - GARCH (0,1) model with a MAPE value of 17.78%.
Co-Authors A. Ilmadani MGB Aang Praboyo Abdul jalil Achmad Wahidy Adelia Rohaeni Adhitya Wibisono Adilah Salsabila Adiningsih, Retnowati adisyanurfadillah Adrian, Maulana Widi Ahcmad Zakky Mubaroq Ahmad Fachrurrazi Ahmad Kurtusi Ahmad Zakiy Alfiana, Rahmadani Aliem Bahri, Aliem Alifah Alifiah Pratiwi Aliman Alya Huwaida Amanda, Riska Ameliani, Indri Amri Amal Amril, Imti Ananda Putri, Ananda Andi Nurfadilah Anggie Putri Nuraghvy Aninda Rizki Maulida Anis Nurfaidah Anisa Sahid Annisa Febrianti Annisa Sanny Annissa Mawardini Anton Apri Wahyudi Aprilliana, Annisa Ardatulloh, Fouqi Arfi Syamsun Arif Sholahuddin Arifuddin M. Arif Arum Sekar Wangi Asep Sopian Asih Handayani Asrul Aulia Ayu Kurnia Sari Azara, Julia Rahma Azhar, Iqlima Azkal Muhammad Azkiya B. Tambun, Vinshenko Baharullah Bakri M. Benarrivo Gultom, Gerald Chaerul Sani Chandra Wardana Deassy Arestya Saksitha Della Aureliya Desi Irliani Dexa Egi Nassandi Dian Safitri Dida Ningtias Diena Widyastuti Diky Rian Rozaky Dina Dita Faradillah Divia Andrayani Diyah Fadillah Dwi Septi Hariyani Dwi Sinta Dwi Siti Aisyah Dwi, Nova Effriyanti Elfiana Eliza Rusliana Br Harahap Eni Eni Nugraeni Erna Ernawati Ester Angeline Etriana Etriyani Karolina Br Sembiring Eva Ngelista, Marcelena fadhilah amalia wahyuddin Fadil Fahimah Faisal Abdillah Fandi Nugroho Farhan, Muhammad Afif Feriyadin Fidya Fita Fatimah, Fita Fitri, Syawalia Fitriono, Eko Nani Fouqi Ardatulloh Ghaida Refiana Zahra Ginta Puspita Habibah, Karin Arbyati Hadianto Nur Fadhli Hafizah Khaira Nasution Hamida Darma HAMIDAH Hanafi , Ahmad Handi Al Fakhri Hardayani, Yorry Hartono Hartono Herliana Firera Hidayah, Noor Riefma Hikmah Marisda, Dewi Hilmi Hambali, Hilmi Husni Nurazizah Huwaida, Alya Huzaimah, Naili Idir Tamsil Ilhmi Zahrani, Nurul Imainul Aprilian, Rahil Imran, Muh. Erwinto Indah Eka Sasfitri Intan Muhpina Damayanti Irmawanty Irni Yuniana Izza Vella Qhonita Jamal, Miftahul Jannah JAMALUDIN Jihan Jimmy Malintang Juliana Jumsa, Muhammad Rizkinov Kartini A. Mbera Kausar, Nova Khaerunnizah Khoerunisa, Intar Kurniawan La Ilfan Afif Amrullah Labiibah Aulia Lastryani Jm Leny Lestari, Widya Lia Lubis, Nasrul Kahfi Luluk Rafidah Luqman Abdul Jabbar M Danang Mukti Darmawan Ma'ruf Magfirah, Nurul Mahdian Mahmudah, Rafiah Maman Abdurrahman MARDIANA Marsaulina Sirait Marwany Mauri, Lulu Maxinus Jaeng MIFTAHUL JANNAH Moch. Riza Fahmi Mohammad Umar Said Muh. Syahril Muhammad Fahmi Hidayat Muhammad Fathurahman Rizky Muhammad Ismi Rezani Muhammad Khairul Amri Mursam Muthia Nabila Mutiara Dewi Mavinka Nadia Nadia Karisma Nanda Octavia Nani Fitriono, Eko Nasrah Naufal Ridho Setyo Laksono Noni Ardi Noor Cahaya Nova Dwi Novayanti Magdalena Gultom Novia Sri Dwijayanti Nunung Siti Nur Arrum Nur Hamzah Nurajijah Bella Nurdiyanti Nuriska Nurjannah Nurkadri, Nurkadri Nurul Apsari Nurul Fadhilah Nurul Fadilah Panaungi, Yasrial Rifqi Pratama, Rekha Yunia Putri Oktarina Putri, Julia Rabbani, Hanif 'Imaduddien Rafidah, Luluk Rahayu, Mannisa Rahma Amelia Purnama Rahmah Mulanti Rahman, Riem Rahayu Rahmawati, Maura Rani Anggraini, Rani Ratnaningtyas, Sambarani Refnida Regita Nathasa Br Kemit Reka Reno Faldi Guntur Saputra Sinaga Resti Dwi Anjani Ridho Ridwan Siskandar Rifki R Rifqi Rifqi Nurfadillah Riska Rizal Rizaldi Rusdi Sulaiman rusdiana Rusdin Rusmansyah Saefudin Zuhri Saeful Anwar Safril Sahri Saidah Syamsuddin Salfadilah, Fatonah Sampara, Nirwana Samsinar Sas Fahmi Sativani Hayati, Riza Sayuti , Muhammad Noor Seget Tritoyoso Selvi Fauzar Sephiona Septa Diana Nabella Septian Rizki Ananda Shafa Shelfi Dewiyanti Sika Raemif Akbar Singgih Prayogo Sirojul Fahmi Siti Robeatul Adawiyah Siti Saleha Siti, Nunung Sofyan Alhaq Sonny T. Lisal Sri Yunita Suraida Salat Sudrajat, Anjani Sukmawatie, Neny Syahmani Syahrianah Syahran Syakira Syarif Nur Syawalia Fitri Syihabuddin Taufiqur Rahman, Eka Tesario Grunadi, Devin Thahir, Rahmatia Tiara Citra Tiara R Tiara Salsabillah Janna Tirtayani , Luh Ayu Tony Yulianto Tulsa’dia, Nurhalimah Vica Andinie Vivi Oxana Putri Vivi Suci Meilindra Wahyu Hidayat Wahyudin, Muhammad Ade Wajdi, Muhammad Widia Astuti Widyawati Wini Wiyoto Wiyoto Yari Dwikurnaningsih Yasmin, Dinda Siti Yogopriyatno, Jatmiko Yohanes Batara, Wili Yudistira, Ira Yulia Wardita YULIANI Yustinus Windrawanto Yusvia Zaskya Salbila