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ANALISIS SISTEM ANTRIAN PELAYANAN TIKET KERETA API STASIUN TAWANG SEMARANG
Yustiti, Merlia;
Sugito, Sugito;
Rusgiyono, Agus
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 3, No 4 (2014): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro
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DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.v3i4.8087
Semarang Tawang Station is one of the stations visited by customers. As it is known, the train journey is faster than the bus ride. Therefore, it is necessary to analyze queueing models that describe the condition to determine the size of the system performance and to see how the service provided by Customer Service, Ticket Reservation Counters/ Schedule Change/ Refund, Cancellation of the Ticket Counters, and Self Printing Ticket (CTM). Queueing model at the Customer Service and Self Printing Ticket (CTM) is (M/M/2):(GD/∞/∞), Ticket Reservation Counters/ Schedule Change/ Refund is (M/M/4):(GD/∞/∞), and Cancellation of the Ticket Counters is (M/G/1):(GD/∞/∞). Keywords : Arrival Distribution, Queueing Models, Size of the System Performance
VALUASI COMPOUND OPTION PUT ON PUT TIPE EROPA
Sutarno, Yulia Agnis;
Maruddani, Di Asih I;
Sugito, Sugito
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 3, No 3 (2014): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro
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DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.v3i3.6486
Options are one of the form of investment which a contract that gives the right (not obligation) to the option holder to buy (call options) or sell (put options) the underlying asset by a certain date for a certain price. Option price is a reflection of the intrinsic value of the option and any additional amount over intrinsic value. One type of options that are traded is compound options. Compound option model is introduced by Robert Geske in 1979. Compound options are options on options. Compound option put on a put is put option where the underlying assets are another put option. The compound option put on put will be exercised on the first exercise date only if the value of the put option on that date is less than the first stike price. An empirical study using compound option put on a put stocks of Apple Inc which is strike price compound option US$ 560, strike price put option US$ 585, with the first exercise date on March 28, 2014 and the second exercise date on May 17, 2014. The theoritical price of compound option put on put on stocks of Apple Inc is US$ 501.4566.
PERBANDINGAN FUZZY TIME SERIES DENGAN METODE CHEN DAN METODE S. R. SINGH (Studi Kasus : Nilai Impor di Jawa Tengah Periode Januari 2014 – Desember 2019)
Rachim, Febyani;
Tarno, Tarno;
Sugito, Sugito
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 9, No 3 (2020): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro
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DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.v9i3.28912
Import is one of the efforts of an area to meet the needs of its population in order to stabilize prices and maintain stock availability. The value of imports in Central Java throughout 2016 amounted to 8811.05 Million US Dollars. The value of imports in Central Java is the top 10 in all provinces in Indonesia with a percentage of 6.50%. Import data in Central Java is included in the time series data category. To maintain the stability of imports in Central Java, it is deemed necessary to make a plan based on a statistical model. One of the time series models that can be applied is the fuzzy time series model with the Chen method approach and the S. R. Singh method because the method is suitable for cyclical patterned data with monthly time periods such as Import data in Central Java. Important concepts in the preparation of the model are fuzzy sets, membership functions, set basic operators, fuzzy variables, universe sets and domains. The fuzzy time series modeling procedure is carried out through several stages, namely the determination of universe discourse which is divided into several intervals, then defines the fuzzy set so that it can be performed fuzzification. After that the fuzzy logical relations and fuzzy logical group relations are determined. The accuracy calculation in both methods uses symmetric Mean Absolute Percentage Error (sMAPE). In this study the sMAPE value obtained in the Fuzzy Time Series Chen method of 10.95% means that it shows good forecasting ability. While the sMAPE value on the Fuzzy Time Series method of S. R. Singh method by 5.50% shows very good forecasting ability. It can be concluded that the sMAPE value in the S. R. Singh fuzzy time series method is better than the Chen method.Keywords: Import value, fuzzy time series , Chen, S. R. Singh, sMAPE
ANALISIS WEB USAGE MINING MENGGUNAKAN METODE MODIFIED GUSTAFSON – KESSEL CLUSTERING DAN ASSOCIATION RULE PADA WEBSITE UNIVERSITAS DIPONEGORO
Kurniawati, Galuh Nurvinda;
Santoso, Rukun;
Sugito, Sugito
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 9, No 4 (2020): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro
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DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.v9i4.29446
The comprehension of web visitors patterns are needed to develop website in an optimal fashion. The visitor pattern contained in the web log file of Diponegoro University’s website is clustered by Modified Gustafson-Kessel method. In general, this method produces two until six clusters. Two kinds of results are outlined in this paper. The first is the result contains two clusters, and the second is containing three clusters. In the first result, the visitors are divided into information seekers of student capacity and Engineering Faculty. In the second result, the visitors are divided into information seekers of Medicine Faculty, student admission and Engineering Faculty. Â
MODERATING STRUCTURAL EQUATION MODELING DENGAN PARTIAL LEAST SQUARE PADA PEMODELAN PENERIMAAN DAN PENGGUNAAN DOMPET DIGITAL DI KOTA SEMARANG
Nisa, Mukrimatun;
Sudarno, Sudarno;
Sugito, Sugito
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 10, No 1 (2021): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro
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DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.v10i1.30044
Digital wallets (e-wallets) are a technology that provides a new perspective for the public on non-cash payments that are far more practical and secure in transactions. The purpose of this study is to determine the factors that influence the success or failure of implementing digital wallets (e-wallets) using the variant-based Structural Equation Modeling method (Partial Least Square). In this decade, an approach has been developed that allows the relationship between an independent variable to the dependent variable which is influenced by other latent variables called Moderating Structural Equation Modeling (MSEM), so this study uses MSEM by measuring it using the ping method. The results of the analysis show that the factors that influence acceptance defined as interest in using the technology are social influences, faciliating conditions and consumer habits. Meanwhile, the factors that influence the use of digital wallets which are defined as usage behavior are interest in use and conditions that facilitate. The use of digital wallets (e-wallets) is also indirectly influenced by social influences, conditions that facilitate and consumer habits. the factor of supporting facilities from the issuer of digital wallets (e-wallets) is a factor that affects directly and indirectly the use of digital wallets (e-wallets). Analysis of Moderating Structural Equation Modeling (MSEM) using the ping method results that experience does not affect the acceptance and use of digital wallets (e-wallets) as moderation Keywords: Acceptance and Use Model, Digital Wallet (E-wallet), Partial Least Square, Moderating Structural Equation Modeling.
PERBANDINGAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING HOLT DAN FUZZY TIME SERIES CHENG PADA PERAMALAN HARGA EMAS DI INDONESIA DILENGKAPI GUI R
Fauziyyah, Fida;
Sugito, Sugito;
Santoso, Rukun
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 12, No 4 (2023): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro
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DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.12.4.509-519
Investment is placing a certain amount of money at this time to get some profit in the future. Investments are divided into three based on the period, namely short-term investments, medium-term investments, and long-term investments. Gold is an example of a good long-term investment. Gold price forecasting is an important thing to know when investing in gold. In this study, gold price data is divided into two parts, namely training data consisting of 674 data from 1 September 2020 to 6 July 2022 and testing data consisting of 75 data from 7 July 2022 to 19 September 2022. The data indicates that there is a trend element so it is suitable for analysis using the Double Exponential Smoothing Holt and Fuzzy Time Series Cheng. Data processing using the Double Exponential Smoothing Holt and Fuzzy Time Series Cheng methods is complemented by the creation of a Graphical User Interface (GUI) which can facilitate the process of selecting the best method. The analysis's findings indicate that Double Exponential Smoothing Holt (0.5427603%), which has a reduced MAPE value than Fuzzy Time Series Cheng (0.6053103%), is the best method.
ANALISIS TINGKAT KEPENTINGAN DAN KINERJA (IMPORTANCE-PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS) NILAI KEGUNAAN APLIKASI M-COMMERCE
Elyasa, Fatiya Rahmita;
Sugito, Sugito;
rusgiyono, agus
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 13, No 1 (2024): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro
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DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.13.1.70-78
Good application quality can bring user satisfaction to form user’s loyalty and trust in the company. The level of user satisfaction is different between Gojek and Grab even though each them has similarities in application features. Gojek and Grab are trying to make position as the most popular by the community in getting people's needs quickly and efficiently with huge competitive. This study aims to analyze and compare the usability qualities of Gojek and Grab based on the User Experience Questionnaire (UEQ) approach on the dimensions of attractiveness, perception, efficiency, dependability, stimulation and novelty. Measurements are made using Importance-Performance Analysis to graphically measure customer satisfaction so that service quality improvement priorities can be established. The data was collected by questionnaire to 32 selected respondents who accessed the Gojek and Grab applications in the Greater Jakarta area in August-December 2022. Based on the results of the study, the position of the usability quality attributes in Gojek and Grab was visually almost the same for each IPA quadrant. The Gojek application is superior in 5 dimensions to Grab, in terms of attractiveness, perception, dependability, stimulation, and novelty. Grab has one dimension that is superior to Gojek, in terms efficiency.
IMPLEMENTASI METODE NAIVE BAYES CLASSIFIER UNTUK KLASIFIKASI SENTIMEN ULASAN PENGGUNA APLIKASI NETFLIX PADA GOOGLE PLAY
Rieuwpassa, Jessica Athalia;
Sugito, Sugito;
Widiharih, Tatik
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 12, No 3 (2023): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro
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DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.12.3.362-371
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to restrictions on activities in public places or facilities, such as cinemas. This has resulted in increased users of streaming service applications such as Netflix where users can access videos or movies online. Netflix users continue to increase from year to year, but its users began to decrease along with other streaming applications. Related to this, sentiment analysis was carried out on the classification of positive and negative reviews given by users on the Google Play website. The classification is expected to produce good accuracy and be analyzed so that it can be useful information for Netflix and potential users of streaming applications. The Naive Bayes Classifier method is a classification algorithm that is easy to apply and has high effectiveness for classifying text. This method utilizes the concept of conditional probability and has a strong assumption of independence. This study uses 2.850 Netflix application review data on Google Play which is then processed and divided into training data and test data with a ratio of 80:20. Classification with the Naive Bayes Classifier produces an accuracy value of 87,33%, a precision value of 87,6%, a recall value of 93,53%, and an F-measure value of 90,47% so it can be concluded that the performance of the Naive Bayes method is good for classifying user reviews of the Netflix.
ANALISIS SISTEM PELAYANAN GARDU TOL OTOMATIS GERBANG TOL GAYAMSARI MENGGUNAKAN METODE BAYESIAN
Akbari, Windusiwi Asih;
Sugito, Sugito;
Suparti, Suparti
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 12, No 4 (2023): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro
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DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.12.4.531-538
Transportation is important things to support mobility. The high level of mobility is in line with the growth of vehicles which has increased causing congestion on roads. Highways are one of the government’s efforts to reduce congestion. Gayamsari Toll Gate is one of the toll gates in Semarang City that experiencing the phenomenon of queuing when paying tolls. This study aims to determine the operation of the service system by obtaining a queuing model and system performance measures from the distribution of arrivals and services. Bayesian method is used to determine the distribution of arrivals and services by finding the posterior distribution. The combination of the sample likelihood function and the prior distribution is known as Bayesian method. The prior distribution used is the previous research data which produces a negative binomial distribution. The likelihood function of the arrival sample in this study is discrete uniform and the likelihood function of the service sample produces a negative binomial distribution. The results are the queuing system model is (Beta/Beta/5): (GD/∞/∞). Based on the results of the queue simulation, we can assume that the service system is optimal.
PEMODELAN KASUS KEMATIAN IBU HAMIL DI JAWA TENGAH DENGAN PENDEKATAN GEOGRAPHICALLY WEIGHTED REGRESSION (GWR) DAN MIXED GWR
Salma, Anugrah Rawiyah;
Sugito, Sugito;
Sa’adah, Ardiana Alifatus
Jurnal Gaussian Vol 13, No 1 (2024): Jurnal Gaussian
Publisher : Department of Statistics, Faculty of Science and Mathematics, Universitas Diponegoro
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DOI: 10.14710/j.gauss.13.1.25-35
Global maternal mortality reduction remains a part of The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Maternal death in Central Java increased in 2021, with the leading cause is related to Covid-19. Maternal mortality in Central Java is demonstrated using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) for addressing the spatial heterogeneity aspects. Cross Validation is used to determine the optimal bandwidth and Euclidean distance used to discover the weighting matrix. Independent variables such as number of nurse, number of primary clinic, and household percentage with safe water supply are identified as local variables, whereas other independent variables, such as complications from delivery management and number of poverty are identified as global variables, hence the Mixed GWR model, which combine both local and global variables, is used. Based on the value of AIC, MSE, also adjusted , the optimal model for analyzing the maternal mortality is Mixed GWR with fixed Gaussian weighting.